Month: May 2017

It’s a Bird! It’s a Plane! No… It’s a Snorlax! A 12th Place LatAm International Report

Hey there Hat Lovers!

I’ve been meaning to write a report for a while, but never got around to it. Now that I don’t have any events until US Internats, I thought it would be a good time to release the team(s) I have used this year. The team I used in Brazil is a product of a team I have been changing and improving on since December, but I will start after St. Louis.

Building the Team:

I placed in the Top 16 in St. Louis, and here’s the team I used. This team was fairly strong, but I felt I could make something better that dealt with threats like Lele Drifblim more efficiently. I decided to keep the core of Tapu Koko, Porygon2, Mudsdale, and Arcanine because of its good matchup against common Gigalith teams. After spending a long time playing with four Pokemon on Showdown, I decided to add Trick Room Nihilego. This was mainly inspired by Rapha’s Nihilego, which you can see here. A lead of Nihilego and Arcanine with Firium Z could almost guarantee me a good position against Lele Drifblim teams, at least in the first game. After playing with this, I realized that the main issue with this team, like all my teams this format, was Snorlax. And what better way to counter Snorlax than with my own Snorlax? In all seriousness, I tried many different Pokemon in this last slot, including Kartana, Hariyama, and Tapu Bulu, before deciding on Snorlax. Now, let’s move on the Pokemon analysis.

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Survivor Bias in Pokemon: Why Analysing Top Cut Teams is a Flawed Practice

Hello Hat Lovers!

Analysing top cut teams and drawing conclusions is a common practice in VGC. However, this is an imperfect process for many reasons, one of them being that it falls victim to survivor bias.

Survivorship bias or survival bias: the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. It is a form of selection bias.”

The intent of this article is not to shed light that the definition of “good” in VGC is dynamic because of meta-game progressions, and it is not to contradict the specific, flawed conclusion that any successful team must be good because of its success. Rather, it is to bring attention to how survivor bias can mislead any conclusion people reach when analysing results.

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